Joined at the Hip

With the growing popularity of two-back offenses in the NFL, fantasy owners will want to embrace the “handcuff strategy” like never before

In the past, the idea of drafting two running backs from the same team was met with blank stares and sometimes projectile vomiting. Injury concerns were the primary reason for doing it. If you took LT, you’d make sure you grabbed Michael Turner; if Shaun Alexander was your main back, you picked up Maurice Morris. “Insurance picks” didn’t impact your drafting plans too much since, in most cases, you could usually grab the second guy fairly late. However, as more NFL teams gravitate towards using two-headed backfields, your thinking and your draft strategy should change. “Handcuffing” two guys from the same NFL backfield to be starters in your fantasy backfield might not be as bad an idea as it once was.

Super Bowl champ Indianapolis along with Chicago, New England and New Orleans – the “final four” of last year’s NFL playoffs - all featured running back by committees (RBBC). A number of other teams did so too, but when the most successful clubs do it, you can bet there will be more to follow. Imitation might be the sincerest form of flattery, but for NFL teams, it’s also good thinking.

Teams reason that the two-back system is a great way to save on wear and tear, lengthen players’ careers and maximize their production. It’s also not a bad strategy to have a one-two punch to off-set defenses who now must game plan for two guys who may have different running styles.

This might be all good for the NFL, but RBBCs have been a headache for fantasy. Who wants that "either/or" decision each week as we agonize over our starting lineups? But, the idea of handcuffing two same team backs is a way to minimize your guesswork on draft day. Do you want to gamble that Warrick Dunn and Ladell Betts pan out for you or be more certain with a Dunn/Jerious Norwood or Betts/Clinton Portis combination. The handcuffing strategy works best in leagues requiring three starting RBs and in flex player systems.

Take a look at what's expected for this season. Hopefully, it will help you organize your thoughts better for draft day.

The sky isn’t falling completely on fantasy backfields though and the single-back offense isn't about to go the way of the single-wing. In fact, we think it's safe to say that at least 13 teams will go with one RB this season. And it's no coincidence that most of these guys are included in our top rankings this year:

Arizona (James), Baltimore (McGahee), Chicago (Benson), Cincinnati (Johnson), Kansas City (Johnson), Miami (Brown), NY Jets (Jones), Philadelphia (Westbrook), Pittsburgh (Parker), San Diego (Tomlinson), San Francisco (Gore), Seattle (Alexander) and St. Louis (Jackson)

On the other side of the coin, it's a good bet the next set of teams will continue their use of the multi-back system:

Atlanta (Dunn and Norwood), Carolina (Foster and Williams), Dallas (Jones and Barber), Jacksonville (Taylor and Jones-Drew) and New Orleans (McAllister and Bush).

Now, here's where things get interesting. There are 14 teams (nearly half the league) that will be either joining the ranks of RBBC teams or are speculated to use this system in '07. These situations can make or break your fantasy season. You might not want to draft some of these guys that high or at least consider handcuffing the two runners together. Without a doubt, you want to watch these teams closely during the pre-season to see what happens.

* Buffalo – Despite drafting Marshawn Lynch in the first round this year, the Bills may also consider Anthony Thomas to help offset the loss of Willis McGahee

* Cleveland – The Browns picked up Jamal Lewis in the off-season, but with questions about him slowing down, there's reason to suspect we'll see another back here too.

* Denver – The Broncos have been one of the heavy users of RBBCs the last few years, but this might change with the arrival of Travis Henry. The question is whether or not Mike Bell will be a factor this year.

* Detroit – The Lions aren’t sure if Kevin Jones’s foot injury will be healed in time for the season, but whether it is or not they’re prepared to use both Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett.

* Green Bay – The loss of Ahman Green (Houston) has prompted the Packers to think differently. Vernand Morency holds the edge over rookie Brandon Jackson, but it wouldn't surprise us to see both guys.

* Houston – Although the Texans are calling Ahman Green a perfect fit for their offense, they still have Ron Dayne and Wali Lundy should they decide to divvy up the work.

* Indianapolis – With Dominic Rhodes gone (Oakland), Joseph Addai looks to be a shoe-in to become an elite fantasy back. However, Coach Dungy is on record saying he doesn't want Addai to be a "20-25 carry back." We'll see.

* Minnesota – The Vikes threw fantasy owners a curve ball on draft day by taking Adrian Peterson. Chester Taylor can kiss last season's 304 carries goodbye.

* New England – It all seems to be lining up perfectly. Corey Dillon leaves and Laurence Maroney becomes a fantasy stud. We think that scenario will play out unless Coach Belichick pulls a fast one.

* New York Giants – The Giants are hoping Brandon Jacobs is their answer in the backfield, but have brought in Reuben Droughns just in case.

* Oakland - Fantasy owners may not be keen on the Raiders pairing LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes, but it might even be worse if rookie Michael Bush is thrown into the mix.

* Tampa Bay – After last year's struggles, Cadillac Williams could be at risk of giving up more work to Michael Pittman.

* Tennessee – Coach Jeff Fisher is a strong believer in the two-back approach and even more so this season with out Travis Henry. LenDale White, rookie Chris Henry and possibly Chris Brown all could part of the combo in '07.

* Washington – Scared by Clinton Portis’ injury problems last year, the Skins want Ladell Betts in the backfield more in this season.

So how much should RBBC's impact our thinking on draft day? Plenty.

First of all, this puts an even greater premium on RBs from single-back schemes. A word of advice; don’t leave the first round without one! By round two you should continue to have running backs on your mind, but the only catch here is that might be considering one from a RBBC scheme. Depending on which two you want to pair up (handcuff), you might have to use your third pick on your third RB. You'll have the luxury of waiting a few rounds on some guys, but this won’t be the case with everyone.

There is a bright side to all of this. All fantasy owners are in the same boat when it comes to this issue and besides, more RBs mean greater depth at the position. However, finding the guy who has the edge over his running partner – even if it's slight – will be the key to stocking a strong fantasy backfield on draft day.

Handcuffing might be a tough pill to swallow, but it could prove to be a fantasy bonanza. Just think back to last year when Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 22 TDs and 2700 yards or the duo of Julius Jones and Marion Barber who racked up 20 scores and 2000 yards; However, had you paired Fred Taylor and Julius Jones together you would have gotten a respectable 2600+ yardage total, but just 10 TDs. Choose wisely.

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Paul Hickey

 

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