Who Gains and Who Loses
By: Paul Hickey
One huge misconception among fantasy owners is that defensive players who change addresses carry the exact same fantasy value with them to their next team. In fact, the truth is quite to the contrary in that off-season player movement can have a significant impact not only on the relocated player, but also on his former teammates and the IDPs on the squad he’s joining. Let’s look at some key guys that have switched uniforms this off-season.
London Fletcher-Baker, Washington MLB – Fletcher-Baker, who is in great shape and has plenty left in the tank, is joining a team that desperately needs his services. His relocation allows Lemar Marshall to move back to his more natural position – weak side linebacker – potentially placing Marshall back on the IDP radar. Fletcher-Baker should once again be a top fantasy LB.
Donnie Edwards, Kansas City OLB – Edwards has been a top IDP since 2002, but don’t be tempted to draft him this season – he’s no sure bet. The last five years in San Diego, he’s played on the inside of a defense with four `backers. In 2007, most likely Edwards will be stuck playing a lot of strong side linebacker – easily the unfriendliest position for IDP owners. A change of defensive formation, position, and team, should be enough to convince you to let somebody else draft Edwards this year.
Cato June, Tampa Bay OLB – June will now play the strong side in Tampa, as veteran Derrick Brooks mans the weak side and second year sleeper Barrett Ruud takes over for Shelton Quarles in the middle. In his new role, don’t expect June to come close to last year’s production. Like Edwards, let someone else in your league draft him.
Adalius Thomas, New England OLB – A beast who’s numbers have steadily increased over the last four seasons, Thomas is finally ready to break out. The Patriots will provide the perfect environment for Thomas to blossom into one of fantasy football’s top IDPs.
Nate Clements, San Francisco CB – Clements has the ability to be one of the top DBs year-in and year-out. The Niners’ defense is greatly improved as a unit, and he should be a solid late sleeper pick.
Tully Banta-Cain, San Francisco OLB – A hidden gem that has been developing in the Patriots organization for the last four seasons, he’ll team up with Manny Lawson and Patrick Willis to form one of the most underrated LB units in the league. He may not be productive enough to start in 10-team IDP leagues, but in deeper formats, he’s a great sleeper.
Adam Archuleta, Chicago S – Archuleta has an inflated opinion of himself, as evidenced by his comments when he was traded to Chicago. He’ll have to beat out Mike Brown and Danieal Manning – not an easy task.
Takeo Spikes, Eagles OLB – The 31 year-old 10-year veteran is no guarantee to be productive in a LB corps featuring young playmaker Omar Gaither.
Ken Hamlin, Dallas S – Don’t expect Hamlin to repeat his solid 2006 performance as a member of a completely new defense in Dallas. His departure from Seattle has opened up an opportunity for veteran Deon Grant, who moves over from Jacksonville.
Dre’ Bly, Denver CB – Bly should enjoy some fantasy success playing opposite All-World corner Champ Bailey. The departure of Al Wilson opens up an opportunity for D.J. Williams to play the middle, and benefit from a greatly improved D-Line and secondary.
Joey Porter, Miami OLB – Porter is the classic example of a football player who gets a lot of attention, but isn’t fantasy worthy at all. That won’t change in Miami – avoid Porter. Instead, go with his teammate, WLB Channing Crowder.
Patrick Kerney, Seattle DE – Entering his ninth year, Kerney has lost a step, but he’ll fit nicely in Seattle’s defense. He’s a great option in 12-team leagues that require two or more starters at D-line.
Other notable IDPs who changed teams this off-season: Terrence Holt, Cardinals safety, Kevin Kaesviharn, Saints safety, Michael Lewis, 49ers safety, Mike Doss, Vikings safety, Napoleon Harris, Chiefs linebacker, Kawika Mitchell, Giants linebacker, Ed Hartwell, Bengals linebacker, Brian Simmons, Saints linebacker and James Hall, Rams defensive end.
Paul Hickey is a regular contributor to Athlon/Grogan's Fantasy Football and operates the web site www.nooffseason.com for year round diehard fantasy fans.