A gutsy, but sensible way to approach draft day

The biggest mistake you can make on draft day is reacting to the draft or letting it control you rather than vice versa. You know how it goes, a couple of quarterbacks get taken and even though you hadn't planned on drafting one this early, you panic a little and pull the trigger. Or maybe it's a run on tight ends. Again, had hoped to wait, but…

We know it's hard at times to be a contrarian and not follow the crowd. But, it's these kinds of blunders that do in most fantasy drafters. Everyone talks about a plan, but it's usually limited to things like getting running backs early, or waiting on a kicker, blah, blah, blah.

You need a real draft plan that has some teeth in it. And once you've got it, you have to steadfastly stick with it. And we have a plan for you. It requires some work, some trust and some guts. But, it's very sensible and will not just organize your thoughts for draft day, but give you a decisive advantage.

The concept is called Target Drafting. It's basically using the same evaluation approach you take with your first round pick and applying to each of the next several rounds. We know that first round pick can be an agonizing decision and unless you have one of the top three selections, you know what mental contortions you go through with that initial pick. "Is this guy really better than that guy?" "Well, if so and so takes this guy at five then maybe I'll get either this guy or that guy." "But, if I take him at six, what should I do in round two?" Sound familiar? That's why the target drafting approach is better. You'll focus your efforts on your most likely options and have the added ability at peeking at the ensuing rounds to plan your next steps.

It's relatively easy to speculate what our options will be with our first pick. If you're selecting 5th, you know you won’t be considering LT and probably not Larry Johnson or Steve Jackson this year either. You can get a pretty good idea of the four or five players that will be on the board when your pick arrives. Target drafting allows you to zero right in on the players who are most likely to be available with each of your picks over the first eight rounds or so.

Two things are necessary to do target drafting. First, you'll need to know your draft position well ahead of time. You've got a little homework to do. Second, you'll need to get your hands on the latest Average Draft Positions Rankings (ADP). These can be found on a several web sites that cater to mock drafts. On many, you can even specify the criteria that are unique to your fantasy league like the number of teams participating, scoring systems and whether a tight end is required. With some you can consider the seriousness of the draft – whether it's just a mock where drafters are inclined to take more risks or a real draft where the season is played out.

The ADP ranking is a terrific draft tool that reflects the "mindset of the masses". It's a summarization of a number of mock drafts – sometimes running into the thousands – that show where each player was selected – on average. Again, it indicates how fantasy drafters are thinking and what decisions they're making. A good ADP will also give you the high and low range of the round each player was taken, but remember that each extreme may represent just one instance.

As with most things, ADP rankings are not perfect and even the majority can be very wrong at times. Do you remember "New Coke"? Well, last year, the popular vote showed Cadillac Williams to be the 15th overall draft selection. We all know how that turned out. The "people" also missed on Travis Henry who was ranked 147th in the ADPs. However, the ADP tool is still the best insight you have to get into your competitors' heads to see how they might be thinking on draft day. Keep in mind that the accuracy of the ADP rankings also diminishes the deeper you go into a draft. This makes sense since drafters' needs vary more in the late rounds and there are criteria other than just statistical forecasts used to make picks. For this reason, we recommend using the target drafting strategy for just the first eight rounds.

For obvious reasons, the first eight rounds are the most crucial for any fantasy team. We chose them because this is where you build your team's nucleus or core and this should be adequate to get your QB, three RBs, three WRs and a TE.

As you map out your target drafting plans using the ADP ranking, the purpose isn’t to focus on the one player that looks like will be available to you in each round. You'll want to consider several players around that pick. You'll also want to plan your draft (when to take a QB and TE) by scouting ahead to see what the depth is like for these positions as the draft proceeds. This is where target drafting can help you the most. You won’t make the mistake of taking a player too early provided you are satisfied with options available to you later.

To use the target drafting method successfully you should have a handful of players to consider in each round and research the heck out of them. It's a little like the investigating that NFL teams do on players before the college draft. However, in this case you’re not concerned about uncovering some dirty laundry. What you should be concerned with though is looking for something that may indicate that the ADP is not quite right – either positively or negatively. As noted earlier the masses can be wrong; especially when many of them are operating with the same information.

To best illustrate target drafting, let's go back to the ADP rankings from last season and pretend we're getting ready for draft day 2006. Say, for example you had the 7th pick of the first round of a 12-team draft. In a snake or serpentine drafting system this would mean you had the 6th selection of the second round. So for all odd-numbered rounds you had pick number 7 and in all even numbered rounds you had the 6th spot.

Last year's ADP showed that Steve Jackson was likely to be available at that spot. However, in an effort to best prepare for that pick, you'd also consider the couple of guys on either side of him: Edgerrin James (number 5), Tiki Barber (6), LaMont Jordan (8) and Rudi Johnson (9). These would be the guys we'd research like mad to, hopefully, make the best decision…and, in hindsight, you might have won your league if you got Jackson at no. 7!

Now you have the 18th pick of the second round. The ADP showed Ronnie Brown to be there, but Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt and Julius Jones surrounded Brown. Looking ahead, there will be 12 selections made before you make your 3rd pick (31st slot) and here you're likely going to have available Corey Dillon, Reggie Wayne, Deuce McAllister, Chris Chambers and Hines Ward.

You almost have to evaluate picks two and three simultaneously, since you decision with the earlier one will govern your decision with the later one. In evaluating picks two and three you might decide that you better take Brown at number two because you’re not enamored with either Dillon or McAllister since Laurence Maroney and Reggie Bush loomed big in these decisions last season. So, your decision is to get Brown and expect your first WR to be either Wayne, Chambers or Ward.

Looking ahead to round four, you might have entertained the idea of a QB. The ADP showed that Marc Bulger would be available. Why not? However, the ADP also showed that guys like Donovan McNabb, Tom Brady and Matt Hasselbeck would likely be available in round five. So, maybe the best move would have been to take a WR in the fourth and pick up a QB in the fifth. The receiver options at no. 4 weren't bad - Plaxico Burress, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson and Joe Horn.

In a nutshell, that's how the target drafting method works. As mentioned, it takes a little work and you've got to trust that the ADP ranking is relatively close to the way drafters are thinking. While that may seem a little risky, this approach is still better than traditional methods. Although the concept of taking the "best available athlete" may sound good, it's not always the most prudent decision particularly if it looks like that "athlete" will still be on the board in the next round.